Bexar Bones: Issue #1 - Texas Senate District 19
The RGV Harbinger (well, maybe)
Spiraling 14 counties across both West Texas and the Rio Grande Valley, Texas Senate District 19 might be one of the most emblematic legislative districts the state has to offer in terms its expansive geography and what can be glean from previous election results. Although there isn’t a currently active legislative contest in the district this cycle (with most political onlookers in Texas honing in on Senator Morgan Lamantia district anchored in Brownsville), the upcoming partisan results in the district this November could possibly be indicative of both Latino voter sentiment, and without exception, the seemingly all-encompassing issue of the southern border.
Biden vs Trump - 2020 General Election (President)
Before the 2020 redistricting re-configurations, Texas Senate District 19 was much, much more competitive. Then, the district included Medina county (one of the most conservative counties in the State), the Fort Stockton area, and all of Brewster county. Even in its portion in Bexar, the district extended upward toward the city of Helotes then swung down to the Southside but included many rural-area precincts before stopping at the Bexar county-line completely. Despite the competitive map, though, then-challenger Roland Gutierrez won the seat by over 10k votes against incumbent Republican Pete Flores. Since then, however, the Republican-heavy Medina county was ousted, the district does not expand to Pecos county (Fort Stockton) any longer, the Brewster portion of the district was halved, and now incorporates several more Democratically-won precincts on the Southside and in the city of Schertz in Bexar. Unlike the previous district lines, also, the district reaches to Guadalupe County, including the city of Seguin.
O’Rourke vs Abbott - 2022 General Election (Gubernatorial)
After applying the new district lines, President Biden won the seat by a 13 point margin in 2020. In 2022, both Beto O’Rourke and Senator Roland Gutierrez won the district by ~10 and half point margins, respectively. With that said, it would seem all topline indicators point to a fairly secure Democratic Senate seat in Texas. Well, maybe. Since President Biden defeated Donald Trump in the 2020 Presidential election, Republicans at almost all levels of government have beat the drum when it comes to the situation at the southern border. Without question, Texas Senate District 19 is home to many border communities which is why it can easily become a bellwether for developing Latino voter sentiment in the region and a test of efficacy for political messaging (both for Democrats and Republicans) surrounding the issues of immigration and border security.
Gutierrez vs Garza - 2022 General Election (Texas Senate)
All in all, Texas Senate District 19 is one of the most unique legislative seats in the State. With the current political dynamics at play in the 2024 election cycle, it’s a district I’ll surely will be keeping an eye on come this November.